Happy New Year! What are your plans and aspirations for the future, particularly in geopolitics and global affairs, often eludes even the most seasoned experts. FBI/ CIA, UK’s MI5/ MI6 Intelligence agencies worldwide devote resources to anticipating major events, yet reflecting on recent history shows time and again that the most impactful and dangerous moments in our global history defy prediction.
As we move forward, it’s worth reflecting on what we have missed and what we might yet fail to see, somethings can be right before our eyes.
The Failure of Prediction
Few foresaw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US’s decision to suddenly pull out of Afghanistan, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, or Hamas’ October 7 assault on Israel.
Just weeks before these crises, authoritative voices confidently dismissed the likelihood of such outcomes.
For instance, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan declared the Middle East more peaceful just weeks before chaos erupted.
The inability to foresee critical events underscores a common and critical blind spot in intelligence and policymaking. Predictions are often based on linear assumptions and existing narratives, failing to account for abrupt shifts or unprecedented actions.
Some of the most concerning possibilities remain in the realm of the “unlikely.” For example, the authors of great fiction work always include a lingering threat of a dirty nuclear bomb, enabled by the proliferation of small nuclear materials post-Soviet Union, continues to haunt security experts.
It is astonishing and fortunate that such an attack has not occurred in the past three decades.
Similarly, climate change presents a ticking time bomb. While most models assume gradual change, tipping points in Arctic ice melt or ocean currents could trigger sudden and catastrophic shifts.
Policymakers and the public must prepare for rapid and unpredictable outcomes that could redefine entire regions.
One place in the world that is somewhat ignored in media is Africa.
Africa, home to 40% of the world’s projected population by 2100, is central to the future of geopolitics and resource management. It holds vast reserves of critical minerals essential for energy transitions, yet the continent is often overlooked until crises, such as droughts or coups erupt.
Six military coups and corrupt rulers highlight the growing instability in parts of Africa.
Foreign powers, including China and Russia, have intensified their involvement through private military contractors and strategic investments, while Western nations are rapidly losing influence.
Humanitarian crises add another layer of urgency. As droughts devastate regions like Somalia, the world’s response remains insufficient.
Witnessing children on the brink of starvation some saved, others lost reminds us of the dire consequences of inaction.
As the year ahead unfolds there is an urgent call for leadership. 2025 could mark a turning point.
Addressing global challenges requires leaders who can cut through noise and mobilise collective action. Take Ukraine, the EU states will need to play a greater front line role in peace going forward.
Journalists and communicators have a critical role to play their part.
Rather than treating extreme weather events as isolated catastrophes, they must frame them as part of the broader climate crisis narrative.
This year must also bring a reckoning with our global priorities. Africa’s growing importance, the unpredictability of climate change, and the ongoing risks of geopolitical instability demand action, not just reaction.
History shows us the future often shocks and surprises us.
But by broadening our perspectives and preparing for the unexpected, we stand a better chance of navigating what lies ahead.
Happy New Year.
